Mexico announces in Brazil its commitment to reduce its current carbon dioxide emissions by 43% with international aid by 2035

“Hope is not born of naive optimism, it is born of an awareness of duty... This climate action is not independent of our human condition, it is a responsibility that unites us as nations and a conviction that defines us as a generation,” said Alicia Bárdenas, head of the Secretariat of Environment and Natural Resources and representative of Mexico at the Climate Summit in Brazil, the prelude to the thirtieth Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (COP30).

Mexico presented its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0), in which it commits to reducing between 31 and 37% of its current net carbon dioxide emissions on an unconditional basis by 2035, and added a conditional target of 38 to 43%.

“The 2035 mitigation goal is framed in a long-term vision, a compass that guides our efforts to achieve net zero emissions by the middle of the century... We are committed to achieving a maximum of net emissions between 364 and 404 million tons of carbon equivalent, in an unconditioned manner... and a conditional goal not to exceed between 332 and 363 million tons of equivalent carbon,” said Bárcena.

The second is conditioned on international cooperation in terms of financing, technology transfer and capacity building, Semarnat said in a statement.

Both goals are established based on Mexico's commitment to zero net emissions by the middle of the century at COP29, and therefore part of the country's capacity to maintain and increase carbon captures in natural sinks, estimated at least 200 MtCO2 by 2030.

Both the unconditioned and the conditioned targets represent a significant reduction considering that current emissions are 583 MtCO2e, according to Semarnat.

It also establishes the unconditional target of emissions of black carbon, soot produced by incomplete combustion of fuels, between 35,800 and 39,700 tons, and a conditional target of between 32,600 and 35,799 tons by 2035.

“We still have time to reach and safeguard the 1.5-degree goal, but the window of opportunity is closing. Today, more important than ever, it is imperative that the COP conclude with a clear political signal of our determination to correct the development model and direction,” said Bárcena.

One of the main plans for the execution of this mitigation goal is Plan Mexico, which includes projects such as the expansion of the Maya Train, the promotion of renewable energy, the consolidation of Plan Sonora, attention to the three most polluted rivers in Mexico and the creation of one hundred industrial parks.

“The NDC 3.0 is a route for a new form of industrialization in Mexico that is called Plan Mexico and that includes strategic sectors such as transportation; electricity generation; industry; agriculture and livestock; waste; and oil, gas and construction,” said Bárcena.

Mexico joins 78 other countries that have submitted their NDC 3.0, according to the Climate Watch platform. Mexico is the fourteenth country with the highest global greenhouse gas emissions in the world (1.31%), in the list led by China (25.29%), the United States (11.16%) and India (7.49%).

New components

Mexico's NDC 2.0, presented in 2022, included two components for climate action: mitigation and adaptation. One of the biggest updates for NDC 3.0 is the addition of three more components: loss and damage; means of implementation and enabling conditions; and cross-cutting climate policy.

The component on enabling conditions and means of implementation helps them to help eliminate regulatory and coordination barriers that prevent effective implementation, and ensure the mobilization of resources, technologies and capacities.

The loss and damage component addresses key measures such as response protocols to extreme weather events, the design of mechanisms for risk transfer -such as parametric insurance- and, crucially, attention to migration linked to the impacts of climate change.

The new NDC includes cross-cutting components such as a gender perspective, a human rights approach and the just transition of the workforce and intergenerational equity in the implementation of climate action.

With regard to adaptation, which was already in place since NDC 2.0, measures are now being strengthened in the five axes established at the time (communities and territory, productive systems, resilient ecosystems and food security, biodiversity and ecosystem services, water resources and strategic infrastructure). In addition to them, there is a new axis on the link between climate change and security, in order to prevent and address socio-environmental conflicts in a timely manner.